Barack Obama Narrows the Gap and Closes in on Hillary Clinton
Al Gore and John Edwards Still a Long Way Behind Them
ROCHESTER, N.Y., June 15 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- While 13 points
separated Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama just one month
ago in the race for the Democratic nomination for President, the gap
between them has narrowed considerably to just four points. Just over
one-third (36%) of adults who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus
would vote for Senator Clinton, while 32 percent would vote for Senator
Obama. Last month, 40 percent would vote for Senator Clinton and 27 percent
said they would vote for Senator Obama.
Of the next closest potential candidates, only one is an actual
candidate. However, both are very far behind the two front-runners. Al Gore
is next in preference as 14 percent would vote for him, followed by 12
percent who would vote for John Edwards. The other six candidates and
potential candidates are all even further behind with only Governor Bill
Richardson above one percent - - he is at three percent. The Democratic
primary race is clearly a two person race at this point in time.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 3,304 U.S. adults
surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between June 1 and 12, 2007. This
survey included 1,196 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or
caucus and like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not
be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential
"horse race," at a very early stage in the race. A previous column(1)
reviewed the data on the Republican candidates.
Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections,
the adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in
both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked
which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many
people, in both parties, as they wished.
Among Democrats, more people say they would consider voting for Hillary
Clinton (70%) than for Barack Obama (57%). However, Obama edges Clinton
among Independents (by 38% to 33%). Among the next tier of candidates, half
of Democrats (49%) would consider Al Gore, while 43 percent of Democrats
would consider John Edwards.
Overall Democratic Leaders Continue to be Preferred over Republicans
When the replies of all adults are taken together, 67 percent would
consider voting for one of the Democrats and 59 percent would consider
voting for one of the Republican leaders. While almost all Democrats (96%)
and Republicans (92%) would consider one of the leaders from their own
party, the Independents are pretty equally divided. Two thirds (68%) of
Independents would consider one of the Democratic leaders while 60 percent
would consider one of the Republican leaders.
TABLE 1
DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ADULTS "WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR" FOR PRESIDENT
"Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008,
there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote
and had
to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people
would you consider voting?"
Base: All adults
Feb Mar Apr May June
% % % % %
Hillary Clinton 45 41 37 42 39
Barack Obama 37 41 39 41 37
Al Gore 26 29 29 29 28
John Edwards 28 29 31 31 26
John Kerry 12 14 14 15 13
Joe Lieberman 12 10 9 11 9
Bill Richardson 8 8 9 9 9
Joe Biden 7 7 7 8 7
Howard Dean 8 8 7 9 7
Wesley Clark 8 9 8 7 5
Russ Feingold N/A N/A 5 4 4
Dennis Kucinich 4 5 4 5 4
Christopher Dodd 4 3 3 3 3
Mike Gravel 1 2 1 2 2
Al Sharpton N/A N/A 3 3 2
Base: All adults
Republican Democrat Independent
% % %
Hillary Clinton 8 70 33
Barack Obama 12 57 38
Al Gore 6 49 26
John Edwards 8 43 25
John Kerry 2 25 11
Joe Lieberman 9 10 9
Bill Richardson 3 13 9
Joe Biden 3 11 6
Howard Dean 1 11 7
Wesley Clark 2 8 4
Russ Feingold 1 6 4
Dennis Kucinich * 5 5
Christopher Dodd 1 5 3
Mike Gravel 1 3 1
Al Sharpton * 4 2
Note: Multiple-response question
*Less than 0.5% "-" No response
N/A -- Not applicable
TABLE 2
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT
"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates
for
president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based
all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below,
for which
one person would you be most likely to vote?
Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus
April May June
% % %
Hillary Clinton 37 40 36
Barack Obama 32 27 32
Al Gore 13 13 14
John Edwards 14 12 12
Bill Richardson 3 3 3
Joe Biden 1 2 1
Dennis Kucinich 1 1 1
Wesley Clark * 1 1
Christopher Dodd * * *
Mike Gravel - * *
Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
*Less than 0.5% "-" No response
TABLE 3
SUMMARY: THOSE WHO WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR ANY OF THE LISTED LEADERS
AND CANDIDATES
Base: All adults
Feb Mar Apr May June
% % % % %
Would consider one of
the listed Democratic leaders 71 69 68 71 67
Would consider one of
the Republican leaders 58 59 59 58 59
Base: All adults
Republican Democrat Independent
% % %
Would consider one of
the listed Democratic leaders 32 96 68
Would consider one of
the Republican leaders 92 33 60
Methodology
This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States
between June 1 and 12, 2007 among 3,304 adults, 1,196 of whom said they
would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus (aged 18 and over). Figures
for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were
weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual
proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to
adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability
sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not
possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error,
error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording
and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore,
Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are
misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling
errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples
with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published
polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have
agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been
weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the
sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris
Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be
calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the
National Council on Public Polls.
J 30279A (June)
Q492, 2036
(1) The Harris Poll(R) #55, Fred Thompson Solidly in Second Place in
Republican Preference For President, June 14, 2007
The Harris Poll(R) #56, June 15, 2007
By Regina Corso, Director, The Harris Poll(R), Harris Interactive.
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market
research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research,
insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident
decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in
performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of
the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online
market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the
world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris
Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and
Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and
MediaTransfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent
market research firms. More information about Harris Interactive may be
obtained at http://www.harrisinteractive.com. To become a member of the Harris
Poll Online and be invited to participate in online surveys, register at
http://www.harrispollonline.com.
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